Nikola Jokic is one of the best rebounders in the NBA and the Lakers are spitting more boards than any team in the league to open the season. Even if Los Angeles tightens on the glass, an elite player like the Nuggets star can clear his rebound prop.
It hasn’t been the best start for any of these presumptive Western Conference contenders, but things may change early when the Los Angeles Lakers travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets tonight.
The Lakers are yet to find a win at the start of this NBA season with three losses to other Western Conference playoff contenders. The Nuggets started the season with a terrible loss to the Utah Jazz, but followed that up with an impressive win over the Golden State Warriors and are now 2-2. Will the Lakers finally enter the win column?
Find out in our NBA free bet picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Nuggets on Wednesday, October 26.
Lakers vs Nuggets best odds
Lakers vs Nuggets picks and predictions
It’s a small sample size, but it’s a real test between a good attack and a bad defense and vice versa. The Nuggets are allowing more points per game than any other NBA team at 124.5 through four contests. However, the Lakers are only averaging 103.3 points per game, which ranks them 29th in the league.
On the other end, the Nuggets are averaging 115.5 points per game, which is 14th in the NBA, and the Lakers are allowing just 110.7 points per game, also 14th in the league. Something has to give here and it will probably be on the glass.
The Lakers are allowing more rebounds per game this season than any other NBA team with a whopping 52.7. Meanwhile, they face one of the league’s top rebounders, two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 10.3 boards so far this season.
Jokic grabs over 25% of the Nuggets’ rebounds and has performed well on the boards against the Lakers throughout his career. He averaged 10.8 rebounds per game in his 20 career games against the Lakers and lost 12 and 18, respectively, in his two games against Los Angeles last season.
The Lakers also allowed the top rebounder of each team they faced to dominate the glass. The Warriors don’t have a big rebounder, but James Wiseman had seven rebounds in just 17 minutes off the bench. Clippers center Ivica Zubac had 17 and Trail Blazers forward Josh Hart had 16.
Jokic will have no problem getting rebounds, especially against a Lakers offense that is struggling to get the ball into the basket. The Association’s worst shooting team will give the MVP plenty of chances to knock out that 12.5 rebounding total from NBA props and I’m confident he’ll make the most of those chances.
my best bet: Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 rebounds (-104)
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Lakers vs Nuggets gap analysis
Not only are the Lakers 0-3 this season, they’re also 0-3 ATS. However, the Nuggets haven’t been great ATS themselves, as they are 1-3 to start the season.
The worst thing about all of this for the Nuggets is that they have yet to cover as a favorite. The only game they won as favorites was just five points, but they were favored by nine. NBA odds have the Nuggets as six-point favorites tonight.
However, Denver covered the two matchups last season in which Jokic played against the Lakers. They were similar favorites in each of those games. This will be the first meeting between these two teams that Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Jokic have all played in the same game since Feb. 14, 2021. The Nuggets won this game by 17 points as 3-point underdogs.
While I’m confident Jokic will own the boards, I also expect the Lakers defense to win the day by a large margin, especially with more Patrick Beverley minutes with Russell Westbrook on the shelf. I wouldn’t necessarily lean on the Lakers silver line, but the gap looks safe and worth taking over four points.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Over/Under Analysis
It’s the season-high total for any Lakers game, which is understandable given the Nuggets’ style of play. However, Denver’s lowest total of the season against the Jazz reached the Unders. If the Lakers play their style of play, that total will also go under.
This game’s history favors the Plus as it is 28-10-2 in the last 40 games. However, this is different from a typical for the Lakers. They are much more defensive and have a struggling attack.
Beverley will be in charge of perimeter defense against Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Murray has struggled to regain his shooting touch after his long injury hiatus as he is shooting just 37.8% from the field. He’s unlikely to get it back in this game, so give me the Under.
Lakers vs Nuggets betting trend you need to know
The Nuggets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs Nuggets.
Lakers vs Nuggets game information
Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
Date: | Wednesday, October 26, 2022 |
Trick : | 10:00 p.m. ET |
TV: | ESPN |
Lakers vs Nuggets key injuries
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