I said last week that the week 7 slate seemed to be tricky, but I was wrong. In the spirit of the holiday season, this was actually a treat. I went 11-3 ATS in my picks over the weekend, which included a 4-1 ATS mark in my five locks for the week. The only mistake was scoring the points with the Patriots on Monday night. But, we hit Cardinals, Bengals, Jets and Giants to get things going.
This was by far my best week of the season, so we’ll be looking to replicate that as best we can moving into week 8, starting with my five locks.
record 2022
Regular season
Locks of the week ATS: 15-18-2
TTY: 49-56-3
ML: 59-49
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Latest odds:
Indianapolis Colts -3
We have not one, but TWO reserve quarterbacks scheduled to start in this game, so you know there’s going to be some level of chaos at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts named Sam Ehlinger the starter ahead of Matt Ryan and the former sixth-round pick will now prepare for his first career start. Meanwhile, Taylor Heinicke started last week in the win over Green Bay and will continue to do so with Carson Wentz on IR. At this location, I will take the points and the most experienced quarterback with the commanders. In his last nine starts, Heinicke is 7-2 ATS, which includes the upset win over the Packers in Week 7. Meanwhile, Ehlinger will now have to face one of the third defenses the toughest in the NFL. Washington ranks as the second-best third defense in the league, which will be too much for the sophomore QB to handle.
Projected score: Commanders 23, Colts 17
The choice : Commanders +3
Latest odds:
Seattle Seahawks -3
We saw the Giants get points over the Jaguars last week and were quick to jump on them. After all, they are now 5-0 SU as underdogs this season, which makes them the perfect pick in this game, right? Well, not quite. It’s the perfect place to clear that perfect record as a dog as they have to fly across the country and play in one of the most intimidating stadiums in the NFL. That’s not to say the Seahawks have been a pleasant surprise this season and Geno Smith is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league while benefiting from an offense that’s currently third in the NFL in DVOA. In his last 15 starts, Smith is 12-3 ATS.
Projected rating: Seahawks 27, Giants 23
The choice : Seahawks-3
Latest odds:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5
In principle, I would like the Bucs in this place. He’s a house dog who gets points after a demoralizing loss on the road. This is the recipe for a catch-up game. However, I just don’t believe this version of Tampa Bay is capable of delivering that kind of rebound performance. Tom Brady & Co. have lost five straight ATS, averaging just 17.7 points per game and the quarterback’s 6.6 yards per attempt is the fourth-worst in his seven-game career.
Historically, Brady has been excellent as a home dog, covering 11 of his 12 games in that setting (best cover percentage since 1970). Again, I just don’t believe this is the Brady of old and the team around him doesn’t seem capable of elevating either.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have played Brady well throughout his career. His 59.7 completion percentage, 1.2 TD-INT ratio and 80.1 passer rating are the worst against any team in his career (min. five starts).
Projected rating: Crows 24, Buccaneers 21
The choice : Crows -1.5
Latest odds:
Detroit Lions +3.5
With one game under his belt, Tua Tagovailoa should be even more polished in his second start since returning from a concussion and has a favorable game against Detroit. This Lions secondary allows 7.7 yards per passing play, second in the NFL. This suggests Tagovailoa should be able to snatch pieces through the air with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. As for the Lions, that offense has been quiet, posting just six points overall over the past two games.
Projected rating: Dolphins 30, Lions 24
The choice : Dolphins -3
Latest odds:
Minnesota Vikings -3.5
The Cardinals are another team that was in my locks a week ago that we’re fading away. The offense welcomed DeAndre Hopkins into the fold last week in their win over New Orleans, and while the star played well, the offense as a whole didn’t look all that impressive. Hopkins accounted for half of Arizona’s total in the receiving game with no other wide receivers recording five receptions or going over 32 yards. I think the Vikings can do enough to disrupt Hopkins, which will then force Kyler Murray to look to other options. If they produce results similar to a week ago, Minnesota shouldn’t worry about setting the basket and the hook. The Vikings are also a perfect 3-0 at home this season with an average winning margin of nine points.
Projected score: Vikings 27, Cardinals 23
The choice : Vikings-3.5
Rest of the peloton
Broncos at Jaguar
Projected rating: Jaguars 24, Broncos 21
The choice : Jaguar-2.5
Panthers at Falcons
Projected score: Falcons 27, Panthers 21
The choice : Falcons -4.5
Bear at Cowboys
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Bears 17
The choice : Cowboys -9.5
Raiders at Saints
Projected score: Saints 30, Raiders 27
The choice : Saints +2
Patriots at Jets
Projected score: Jets 24, Patriots 21
The choice : Rolls +1.5
Steelers at Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 30, Steelers 20
The choice : Steelers +11
Titans at Texas
Projected score: Titans 24, Texans 20
The choice : Titans-2
49ers at Rams
Projected score: 49ers 23, Rams 20
The choice : 49ers -1.5
Packers at Invoices
Projected score: Invoices 33, Packers 24
The choice : Packers +11.5
Bengals to Browns
Projected score: Bengals 27, Browns 23
The choice : Bengals -3
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#Odds #NFL #Week #Picks #Seahawks #Giants #underdog #streak #COs #spoil #Sam #Ehlinger #debut