Going .500 when picking NFL games is not something to brag about. Some will take it, but I want more – much more.
Last week I went 8-6 with my Expert ATS picks, 7-7 straight – hey, picking this league is hard – and 3-3 with my best bets as part of the Pick Podcast Six.
This brings my records to 50-54-4 ATS, 57-50-1 straight and 20-20 with my best bets. The early success I had this season has clearly leveled off.
It’s time to have winning weeks again. Maybe let’s look at it this way: at least they weren’t losing records. Right? Give me something. Anything?
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
The Bucs are floundering after losing two straight games. The offense is a mess. The Ravens have improved on defense, but their passing game is a bit struggling. It’s a game where Tom Brady and the Bucs get into it. Look for deep shots for big plays as the Bucs get the better of the Ravens.
Take: Bucks 27, Crows 19
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (ESPN+)
Featured game | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos
These are two teams that need a win. The Jaguars have played better football than the Broncos so far, and they are used to playing in London. It’s an advantage. It will come down to Trevor Lawrence versus Russell Wilson or Brett Rypien. Lawrence will make the most of it.
Take: Jaguars 23, Broncos 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured game | Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
It’s actually a big game in the NFC South since the teams in that division are so bad right now. The Falcons were dominated by the Bengals last week, while the Panthers beat the Bucs. Back home, seek out Arthur Smith to get his team back on track. The Falcons take it as they limit a poor Carolina offense.
Take: Falcons 23, Panthers 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured game | Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears impressed by beating the Patriots, but it will be a big step up for their young offense against the Dallas defense. The Cowboys will counter with a solid running game against a struggling Chicago defense on the run. With the Bears on a short week and on the road again, it’s going to get ugly.
Take: Cowboys 31, Bears 14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured game | Detroit Lions vs. Miami Dolphins
The Lions parted ways after a slow start, with poor defending being the main problem. Look for the Dolphins and their on-track speed receivers to fly against this defense as Tua Tagovailoa wins a shootout against the Lions. Miami rolls.
Take: Dolphins 35, Lions 26
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured game | Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are coming off a win Thursday over the Saints, while the Vikings are coming off a bye. Arizona’s defense was better against the Saints, but it’s a real challenge on the Vikings’ offense. Look for plenty of points here as the Vikings win with Kirk Cousins having a great day.
Take: Vikings 31, Cardinals 28
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured game | New Orleans Saints vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders did some good things against the Texans last week, but facing the Saints on the road is a bigger challenge. New Orleans will have been rested after their loss last Thursday and should be back with injured players. The Saints’ defense hasn’t been good, but this is the game where they start to turn things around. The saints take it.
Take: Saints 26, Raiders 20
New England Patriots (-1.5) vs. New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured game | New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots are playing a short week and played terribly losing to the Bears on Monday night. The Jets are back home after winning two games on the road. But they suffered some serious injuries, including to rookie running back Breece Hall. It will count later, but not here. The Jets’ defense will limit the Pats’ offense no matter who plays quarterback. The Jets keep rolling.
Take: Jets 24, Patriots 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured game | Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Battle of Pennsylvania features a Steelers team playing a second straight road game against an Eagles team that just passed a bye. It’s a big advantage for the Eagles. Philadelphia’s offense is hard to prepare for in a short week after playing Sunday night. Give me the Eagles to win easily.
Take: Eagles 30, Steelers 17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured game | Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
The Titans have taken command of the AFC South as they head to Houston to take on the Texans. Houston showed some improvement on offense, with Davis Mills playing better. The Titans are coming off a big win from the Colts, so some sort of disappointment could be in play. The Texans are going to hang around.
Take: Titans 24, Texans 22
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured game | Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders
It’s Taylor Heinicke versus Sam Ehlinger. I bet you can’t wait. The Colts will face Ehlinger the rest of the season, with Matt Ryan injured at the moment and also benched. Ehlinger can move around, which will help the Colts’ poor offensive line. Commanders have won two games in a row as their defense plays better. I think they make the most of it here.
Take: Commanders 23, Colts 22
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured game | Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
It’s a huge game in the division, especially for the Rams, who lost to the 49ers earlier this year. The Rams are coming off a bye, so they’re rested. But the 49ers have the pass rush to disrupt the Rams’ passing game. Kyle Shanahan also had great success against the Rams and Sean McVay. It carries here.
Take: 49ers 27, Rams 21
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured game | Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants
It’s a long road trip for the Giants’ second straight road game. They are also bumped on the offensive line. The Seahawks can run it, while the Giants can’t stop the run. Look for another big game from Kenneth Walker III as Seattle goes 5-3 and remains atop the NFC West.
Take: Seahawks 27, Giants 20
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)
Featured game | Buffalo Bills vs. Green Bay Packers
This game seemed like a marquee game before the season, but the Packers are 3-4 and struggling. The Bills just got a bye and look great on offense this season. I don’t think the Packers have a chance to call. Josh Allen gets the better of Aaron Rodgers.
Take: Bills 37, Packers 20
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)
Featured game | Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
If the Browns want a chance to win the division, they have to win this game. They just had so many problems on defense, which isn’t a good thing against Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ passing game the way they do. They will continue as they beat the Browns.
Take: Bengals 33, Browns 28
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