Depending on altitude, the warming rate of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) has been twice the global average in recent decades. Climate change-induced permafrost degradation can seriously threaten infrastructure stability and thus increase the frequency of infrastructure repair and replacement.
By integrating a data-driven projection, a multi-hazard index, and lifetime replacement models, researchers from the Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) assessed the economic damages of permafrost degradation on infrastructure during QTP for the first time. Their results were published in Earth & Environment Communications October 13.
According to the researchers, 38% of roads, 39% of railways and power lines and 21% of buildings could be threatened by permafrost degradation in high-risk areas (SSP245) by 2050. These proportions could almost double by the end of this period. century.
As a result, the additional cost of $4 billion (net present value, annual discount rate of 2.85%) by 2050 and about $6.3 billion by the end of this century will be necessary to maintain the service function of the current infrastructure in the historical scenario (SSP245).
Under the Green Scenario (SSP126), an additional cost of $3.6 billion will be required by 2050, which is a substantial reduction from the results under SSP245. This reduction could increase further to $1.6 billion by the end of this century.
The global warming targets of the Paris Agreement could have dramatically different influences on hazard levels by the end of this century. Controlling global warming below 1.5°C can roughly halve infrastructure in high-risk areas and cut costs by $1.3 billion compared to results achieved under the 2°C target.
Adaptation of roads, railways, power lines and buildings in good condition would considerably reduce this additional cost. By 2050, the percentage of potential cost savings from adaptations is around 15% (SSP245). This saving could reach 21% by the end of the century.
Thawing permafrost has a significant impact on the built environment
Youhua Ran et al, permafrost degradation increases significant future infrastructure risks and costs at the third pole, Earth & Environment Communications (2022). DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00568-6
Provided by Chinese Academy of Sciences
Quote: Permafrost degradation increases future infrastructure costs on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (2022, October 28) Retrieved October 28, 2022 from https://phys.org/news/2022-10-permafrost-degradation-future-infrastructure -qinghai-tibet. html
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