Four Oilers players who have taken a step forward in 2022-23 so far, and one who needs to improve
The Edmonton Oilers have by no means gotten off to a perfect start, but there have been plenty of positives for the team so far in 2022-23.
In those first nine games, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are producing at the elite level, as per usual. McDavid currently leads the league with nine goals and has a very legitimate shot at reaching the 50-goal mark and potentially even winning the Rocket Richard. Meanwhile, Draisaitl leads the league in assists, with 12A in 9 GP.
Of course, it certainly wasn’t a two-man show, as several players beyond their two superstars performed well. Here’s a look at four Edmonton players who have seen massive improvement early in the 2022-23 campaign, alongside one player who Needs to play better.
*All stats via EvolvingHockey and Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise noted
Last season, Skinner played in 13 games for the Oilers, in which he posted a 91.4% save percentage and saved about a goal above expectation. Typically, he was above average in goal and after posting a shutout against San Jose, he spent the rest of his season in Bakersfield.
This year he was projected as a backup goaltender behind new Jack Campbell, but in the games they’ve played so far, Skinner has been Edmonton’s top goaltender. Campbell struggled somewhat, with an 88.8% save percentage, and allowed 2.8 more goals than expected.
On the other hand, Skinner has an excellent save percentage of 95.5%, with 128 saves on 134 shots. Skinner registered a total of 7.7 goals above expectations, which is a very impressive mark to achieve in just four games.
“I thought Stuart Skinner was exactly what I expected; confident,” coach Jay Woodcroft said after the team’s win over Calgary on Saturday night. “I felt good about his ability to come in and help us win the game tonight. He made many big saves.
Sure, he won’t maintain a 95.5 SV% for the whole season, but so far, there’s no denying he’s taken a step forward. He’s definitely challenging Campbell for the starting position, and I wouldn’t be at all shocked if he became Edmonton’s full-time starter come playoff time.
“He gave us a sense of calm,” McDavid said of Skinner. “He’s just steady in there, and solid, making the saves he should.”
In 2021-22, Nugent-Hopkins was deadly on the power play as he always has been, but he wasn’t outstanding at 5-on-5.
So far, NHL is tied with McDavid for the team lead in 5v5 goals, and he’s seen improvement in both goals and expected goal differential at 5-5 from last season. Overall, RNH has five goals and twelve points in nine games and has been one of the team’s best producers so far.
It’s definitely been a good start to the season for him, and hopefully he continues to improve to 5v5 as the season progresses. He’s certainly in a suitable position to do so, as he’s been deployed as the team’s top left winger alongside McDavid and Hyman in the last two games.
Over the past decade, the Oilers haven’t had much success when it comes to signing second-round NHL players. One player seems to be breaking that trend, and it’s none other than Ryan McLeod.
McLeod played 71 games for the Oilers last season, where he had strong underlying defensive numbers and excellent transition results, but he wasn’t exceptional when it came to offensive production.
So far, McLeod ranks second among the whole team in the expected goal differential. McLeod is also gradually begins to produce more offensively, with 3 goals in 9 games. Also, McLeod is starting to gain some trust from the coaching staff. Despite playing in the last six, McLeod recorded over 18 minutes in their 6-5 win over Chicago on Thursday.
McLeod’s ceiling doesn’t seem excessively high, but he’s quickly emerging as a valuable and versatile two-way striker. It’s a shame the team couldn’t sign him for a longer contract.
He formed an excellent third line alongside Warren Foegele and Jesse Puljujarvi. The trio beat the opposition at a rate of 40 – 24 and surpassed them at a rate of 21 – 7. Without a doubt, this is one of the most effective third lines the team has had in a while. long time. The strong performance of this line allows Nugent-Hopkins to play LW, opening up plenty of possibilities for potential combinations across the top six lines.
Evan Bouchard’s first full season in the NHL came in 2021-22, where he showed a ton of offensive potential. Bouchard’s isolated impact on the generation of scoring chances (RAPM xGF/60) class 4th among all defenders; in other words, the team regularly generated high-quality shots and chances every time Bouchard stepped on the ice.
I’m not the biggest fan of using point totals for defenders, but it’s certainly worth mentioning that Bouchard ranked 11th among all defenders with a 5v5 total of 31 points. Since 2007, only four other defenders under 22 have produced more than 31P at 5v5.
However, the biggest question for Bouchard heading into this season was whether he could improve his defensive game. While the team generated an extremely high number of chances for with Bouchard, they also allowed themselves a significant number of chances in the other direction; Bouchard’s impact on to delete scoring chances (RAPM xGA) only better ranked than 6% league defenders.
This season, Bouchard has not been perfect by all means, but in general he has seen considerable improvement. I don’t like using goal differential in such limited samples, but Bouchard ranks first among Oilers defensemen in expected goals allowed per hour. It also ranks first among all players in the expected goal and shot attempt differential, with a 61xGF% and 59 HR%; in simpler terms, the Oilers are regularly tip the ice with Bouchard at both ends.
Again, Bouchard was not without fault, and he still makes notable errors in the DZ from time to time. However, the simple fact is that the team performs much better defensively with Bouchard. on the ice as opposed to without it, and this is an encouraging trend to note.
To me, he seems a lot more active in the defensive zone, making entry denials and breaking up passes at a higher and more consistent rate. His main area of improvement is in overall DZ coverage and making fewer mistakes, but he has made strides this season when it comes to his two-way performance.
Tyson Barrie is struggling defensively, and that’s certainly nothing new for him.
Saturday night against Calgary, Barrie was on the ice for 30 shooting attempts and 12 chance to score against in just 16 minutes at 5v5; note that this does not include the two shorthanded breakaways he was too on ice for. No Oilers defenseman has been on the ice for more scoring chances than Barrie this season.
The main problem with Edmonton’s defensive core is finding a partner for Barrie. He made a reliable third pair with Brett Kulak last season, but due to Edmonton’s current defensive depth, Kulak has to be 2nd. It forces Barrie to play in a top-four role, which he clearly can’t handle without hampering the team defensively, or it makes him play on third pair with one of Murray or Niemelainen.
During the period they played together, Barrie and Niemelainen posted poor results, and Murray is also pretty bad at defending the rush, which means Murray – Barrie would probably be a bad stylistic pairing. Therefore, he is simply a bad choice on this list.
At this stage of his career, he is a superfluous PP specialist. A team with McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH will always contain a dangerous power play; they held the best PP in the league the season before signing Barrie. With a player like Bouchard on the team, he’s just redundant and doesn’t provide enough value for his expensive $4.5 million cap. The most obvious player to move to create cap space in my mind is Barrie, not Puljujarvi or Foegele.
At 31, it’s essentially impossible for Barrie to improve defensively, but the wait for him should be at least to play a little decent on third pair.
The Oilers are on an encouraging four-game winning streak thanks to their offense and Skinner’s goalie, but defense still remains the main area for improvement as the Oilers rank 26 in the league in xGA/60. Simply put, either Barrie needs to up his game and manage a third-pairing role, or Edmonton needs to find an upgrade if they want to improve defensively.
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