The Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1, 3-3 ATS, 1-5 O/U) take on the Tennessee Titans (3-2, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U) in a divisional showdown Sunday afternoon . The Colts rallied for a win over the Jaguars last week. The Titans beat Washington two weeks ago and were bye last week. These foes met in week four in a game the Titans won by a score of 24-17.
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Colts beat Jags in second straight win
The Indianapolis Colts are looking for a third straight win. It was a bit of a sluggish start to the season. They played out a 20-20 decision against Houston in Game 1 and were shut out by the Jaguars in Week 2. They have since beaten the Broncos in overtime and were one-point favorites in a 34-27 home win over the Jaguars last week. Indy has covered in three of its last four games.
Matt Ryan had his best game of the season last week, throwing for 389 yards. The 37-year-old QB has now eclipsed 300 yards three times this season and has 1,765 passing yards accompanied by an 8:7 TD to INT ratio. Jonathan Taylor didn’t play last week due to an ankle injury and will play this week. The 23-year-old is a big threat and has 328 yards in four games. Deon Jackson and Philip Lindsay will likely take a few errands as well.
Michael Pittman Jr. struggled against the Titans earlier this month, logging just 31 yards. The 25-year-old WR star had a season-high 134 yards last week and recorded 417 receiving yards this season. The Colts’ offense has been wildly inconsistent and only scored more than 20 points once all season. The good news is that RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) is expected this week.
Career highs for catches and receiving yardsβ¦
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β Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 18, 2022
The Indianapolis defense wore them most of the season. They struggled a bit against the Jags last week, giving up 377 total yards. One of their best defensive players, Shaquille Leonard, has only played one game and is not expected to play on Sunday. Pass defense ranks 10th while rushing defense is 22nd. Indy is averaging just 17.2 points, which ranks them 28th in the league. The defense concedes an average of 20.2 points, good for the 14th.
Titans return from Bye looking for fourth straight win
The Tennessee Titans come into this one having enjoyed their bye week. The Titans suffered losses in the first two games of the season against the Giants and the Bills and bounced back in spectacular fashion, winning three games in a row. They beat that Colts team by a score of 24-17, followed by a 21-17 road victory over the Commanders to cover the small one-point gap before the bye. The Titans have covered points in three straight games.
Ryan Tannehill was effective. The 34-year-old QB won’t put big numbers on a team that likes to run but boasts a solid 65.1% completion efficiency. Tannehill had just 137 passing yards against the Colts earlier this month and had 965 passing yards with a 6:3 TD/INT ratio on the season. Derrick Henry has rushed for 100 yards in two straight games. The 28-year-old RB exploited the Colts rushing defense in the first meeting with 114 yards. He has 408 rushing yards this season.
Robert Woods is heavily targeted by Tannehill. The veteran WR was targeted eight times in the win over the Commanders and has 204 receiving yards. Tennessee’s offense won’t dazzle but has scored at least 20 points in all but one game.
Derrick Henry’s Best Games Against Commanders Week 5
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β Tennessee Titans (@Titans) October 10, 2022
The Titans’ defense has been their main strength. The unit was operated by the Bills but was able to hold everyone for the most part. The only area that needs work is pass defense. They’re ranked 32nd against the pass and the Colts have a good passing offense. The point defense is solid, ranking sixth. Tennessee is averaging 19.2 points on the year, ranking 21st. The defense concedes an average of 23.6 points, positioning them 21st in the NFL.
Best bets for this game
Full game side bet
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Evaluation:
The Colts are playing much better after a poor start. They’ve won three of their last four games, including a road win at Denver during that stretch. I especially like this game considering Matt Ryan’s recent performance and Taylor’s return. The veteran QB passed for 356 yards against the Titans defense earlier this month and is coming off a remarkable 389 yards against the Jaguars last week. The Titans’ pass defense is exploited, ranking last in the NFL.
Also, the Titans’ defense didn’t stand out. They passed just 243 total yards against the Colts defense earlier this month. It won’t be easy for Derrick Henry on the field considering the Colts have a stellar defense. Additionally, the Titans defense is wasting an average of 390 total yards per game. Indy’s offense outshot the Titans by more than 100 yards in the first game and I expect them to win this one.
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts +2.5
Total Full Game Selection
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Evaluation:
I opt for the most. It’s one of the lowest totals on this week’s list. Indy’s offense is starting to stall and is coming off 34 points against a Jaguars defense that ranks in the top 10 in many defensive categories. Matt Ryan attempted 58 passes last week and I expect them to target a Titans secondary struggling to contain opponents.
Additionally, the Titans produce consistently, recording at least 21 points in three straight games including 24 against this Colts team. Derrick Henry is dangerous. He passed for 100 yards in two consecutive performances. The over bets are also 7-3 in the Colts’ last ten games in October.
Prediction: Over 41.5
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