Check out the new goalie position if you haven’t already. Now configure email update notifications (you will have to do this again, with the new platform). Log in using only a one-time email address and password (that’s it!). Go to your settings and tick the boxes of the teams you want to receive email updates for to start goalkeeper notifications. It’s free! Emails are now 100% working (last week we fixed an issue that was sending email notifications for “tomorrow” games when we were doing our best guesses – no need to be warned, so we have implemented a fix that prevented this).
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In the fantasy world, we generally think of the Blue Jackets as a low-scoring team that’s pretty frugal in terms of giving up goals against. When they added Johnny Hockey, it would be fair for you to think that this team solved the first one. So far it turns out that the first problem is still not really solved – and now the goalkeeper and the defense have been terrible. The Jackets have allowed six or more goals in three of the last five games. Elvis Merzlikins was in the net for two of them and his fantastic owners are worried. I have long been a fan of Merzlikins, considering him even early in his career as one of the top three young goaltenders in the world in terms of talent and NHL readiness (Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin the others). His SV% was 0.923 as a rookie in 2019-20, slipping to 0.916 and then 0.907 last year. So far this season, he’s at .863 after giving up all seven goals to New Jersey on Sunday. I must admit that my confidence is shaken for this season. But in the long run I’m still a funder. You see production dip like this for a season or two and then bounce back all the time. Once a goalkeeper is strong for an extended period, he has a rebound year if his talent level is high and he has enough leash. You saw it with Pekka Rinne, for example. Sergei Bobrovsky too. Horrible seasons in decline, to bounce back and win Vézinas. Merzlikins contract ($5.4 million AAV each of the next four years after this one). Without this contract, I would be much (much) less certain of a rebound. But this team will keep throwing him out there, letting him work through it.
One thing that makes the situation more interesting is the fact that Daniil Tarasov is one of my favorite goalkeeper prospects. High-end talent and advantage. But it’s also struggling, which makes me suspect it’s the system. So either the team ends up agreeing or the coach gets fired. Either way, the number of goalkeepers will change. If you have room on your bench, I’ll fit Merzlikins there. It will be worth it, just give it an extra dozen games. On Sunday, Elvis conceded seven goals, but his team allowed 53 shots! Columbus must understand this, and they will.
Tarasov, by the way, is still a bit too young. With Joonas Korpisalo called up, look for Tarasov to get quality time in the AHL. Korpisalo could steal the short-term net from Elvis until Elvis does it again.
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Two more points for Jesper Bratt give him a stunning 15 on the campaign. He is now fourth in the championship. I’ve been a real fan of this underrated player since the beginning of last year. I think he’s a better fantasy than Jack Hughes both long term and short term. Yes, I said it.
Three different Devils defensemen had points and none of them were named Hamilton or Severson. For what it’s worth, Severson’s puck chance is down a bit and his PP results are down (not sustainable). He regularly gets 33% of the available PP ice time and his PPIPP is usually between 62% and 80%. All of this means his ES point total is a point or two lower than if things were going normally (and will happen over a longer period of time, statistically speaking) – and that means his PP point total is one or two points lower than normal too. Over time, these will balance out. Severson has two points from nine games, but under normal circumstances he would have five. This will balance out over the next two months and I view it as a low buy opportunity.
One of the best fantasy hockey owners who didn’t get in on the fun with the Devils? Alexander Holtz. The seventh overall pick in 2020 was a healthy elimination for the fifth time in six games. Honestly, just send the guy. Bring it on when an injury hits the top six. If I had him in my league, I’d like to see him come down and hammer 20 points in 20 games, be called brimming with confidence in December, and have a great second half. This press thing is not good, because he tells me that they will continue to put him in the lineup every two or three games and give him 10 minutes on the fourth line. No thanks.
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With Vitek Vanecek posting three straight quality starts and Mackenzie Blackwood struggling, it looks like Vanecek has at least temporarily taken over the starting job. I believe in Vanecek much more than Blackwood, if that adds weight to your decision-making here.
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Marco Rossi struggled and has now left Matt Boldy’s line. I’m still convinced we’ll end up saying ‘Boldy is on the Rossi line’. But until Rossi does something, we’ll stick with the original statement. Rossi played Sunday with Brandon Duhaime and Tyson Jost. It’s a stone’s throw from the press box and a stone’s throw from the AHL. And again – I don’t mind the best prospects dropping out. It’s all about confidence at this age.
Ryan Hartman left the game with an injury and his spot was filled by Mats Zuccarello and Mason Shaw. Boldy played with Hartman and scored one before the injury – and then again after the injury (while Shaw was there).
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Jonathan Toews has points in five straight games. A Chicago player not named “Kane” doing this is actually quite remarkable. I believe in a rebound year for him, even at his age, because last season came off a full year without ice. For me, it’s a Mulligan for experienced players like him. But in a team like Chicago, what is a “rebound year”? If it stays there the whole campaign (doubtful), that probably still means high-50s, flirting with 60.
Jarred Tinordi was drafted 22n/a overall in 2010 and failed to get his NHL career off the ground. But in 2019, at the age of 27, he started making weird appearances. And since that time, he’s learned that using his 6-6, 229-pound frame for bodychecking is his ticket to the call. Early in his pro endeavors, he was averaging around 1.75 hits per game. But since 2019, that average has been closer to 2.75. This season, he’s played every game so far for a Chicago team that needed bodies at the back. Tinordi has averaged 3.78 hits per game so far. In addition to six hits on Sunday, the 30-year-old Tinordi had two assists, which I believe is his first-ever multi-run effort in the NHL.
Tinordi is a good clean Dobbernomics (value), for those who play this awesome free game…
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The Leafs faced the only team that had yet to win two games…and that team went on to win their second game. Toronto has lost four games in a row and you have to think that Sheldon Keefe is in the hot seat. I know Kyle Dubas is a patient man, but this team has the Flyers under John Tortorella, followed by Boston and Carolina. Not exactly easy wins there.
Toronto line combos on Sunday as Keefe scrambles to save the road trip:
I thought this new Nylander line was very promising. We all know Robertson’s potential, and Malgin underestimated the upside if he can ever get the chance (he scored a nice one).
Trevor Zegras has scored twice and had three or more shots in four straight games. He also has a seven of nine at the face-off circle and has actually been pretty strong there over that four-game stretch.
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Connor Hellebuyck has had a Vezina-caliber season so far. Last Thursday he was ridiculously good. Yes, he allowed four goals but it was on 40 shots. His team was largely outplayed and he stole the game. And that was the very next game after posting a shutout. So he came in on Sunday with two great games under his belt and he came out almost stealing another. Allowing only one goal on the first 47 shots he faced, Hellebuyck’s teammates couldn’t give him the W. He conceded a nice goal from Jack Eichel here in overtime:
Anyway, despite the result, I haven’t seen Hell-Boy do this since the 2019-20 season. Fasten your seatbelt to the Winnipeg fans.
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Don’t watch now, but it looks like teenage rookie Dylan Guenther is starting to settle in. His two assists on Sunday give him four points in his last four games (three on the power play) despite only seeing about 12 minutes per game. He had ES time alongside Clayton Keller on Sunday, so the opportunities are starting to emerge. If he can work his way up to the top PP unit, he could really flourish. This is a situation to watch.
This second unit for Arizona is really buzzing though. I have already noted that Guenther has three PPPts. Mattias Maccelli has four and has participated in 100% of PP goals scored when he is there. Maybe they should move Keller to this unit and make it the first.
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SFN fans in Ontario – I just found out about a SFN company operating in the province. OwnersBox started out as a fantastic weekly site (so I guess…WFS?), but expanded into the DFS format and maintained operations in Ontario. You can visit them here, and you can have a free DFS game if you use the promotional code “DOBBER”.
We have made OwnersBox our fourth DFS company to which we provide tools with our DFS subscription. For $99.99, you get full season and playoff access to these tools for four major DFS venues – including our patented hot/cold and weighted average formulas that optimize your lineups, as well as our stack (which helps you stack your DFS lineup if you want to focus on a certain team). You can get the subscription here.
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Speaking of Daily Fantasy in Ontario, I have a meeting with the Ontario Minister of Finance Friday. I’ll keep you posted on developments or follow me on Twitter for an earlier update. Rest assured, I did my homework and worked with several influencers in the fantasy sports industry to get everything I needed to present our case. Daily Fantasy is to be removed from the sports betting umbrella and given its own set of rules. We need to bring the other big companies back to Ontario for DFS.
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See you next Monday.
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#Ramblings #Elvis #Bratt #Vanecek #Rossi #Hellebuyck #Guenther #more.. #October