10/25 Update below. This article was originally published on October 22
Early iPhone 15 leaks claim that Apple will shake up its smartphone lineup with several eye-catching design changes. And now it looks like the release of a new flagship model will coincide with the move to a potentially game-changing base material.
Having used stainless steel exclusively on its high-end smartphones since the iPhone X 2017, the popular leaker LeaksApplePro claims that the iPhone 15 Ultra (planned to replace the Pro Max brand) will have a titanium chassis. Titanium is much stronger and lighter than stainless steel, but it is also extremely expensive.
As for the good news, titanium’s strength-to-weight ratio is on another level than stainless steel, offering almost the same strength at 40% of its weight. This is why titanium is commonly used in weight-dependent applications, such as aircraft parts.
Additionally, titanium is 3-4 times stronger than stainless steel at the same weight. This would give Apple options: reduce the weight of the iPhone 15 Ultra without losing strength, keep the same weight and launch the most powerful smartphone in the world, or – more likely – find a balance between the two.
The benefits make titanium a no-brainer, but the reason it’s not common in smartphones is its cost. The price of titanium is $35 to $50 per kilogram, compared to $1 to $1.50 per kilogram for stainless steel. It’s a colossal difference, making it a real shock that Apple is launching a titanium iPhone.
Sure, Apple can call upon industry-leading economies of scale, but even they may struggle unless the company considers raising prices again.
Update 10/24: added weight has been added to a cost increase for the so-called iPhone 14 Ultra. written in his weekly Power-Up BulletinBloomberg’s Mark Gurman reiterates that he believes Apple will “create a bigger gap between the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max” while acknowledging the potential new “Ultra” branding.
However, what is new is Gurman’s claim that the Ultra might cost more than the iPhone 14 Pro Max. It’s not an endorsement of the titanium leak, but changing the material would be nearly impossible without a price increase.
As it stands, the iPhone 14 Pro Max starts at $1,100 and comes in four storage tiers: 128GB, 256GB ($1,200), 512GB ($1,400), and 1TB ( $1,600). That’s a lot, but spread over a three-year contract, an extra $100-200 at each level is plausible. Apple could also increase average selling prices by removing the 128GB tier, which is far from “Ultra”.
Even at this early stage, I expect Ultra branding and pricing to be the main narrative for the iPhone 15 lineup.
Update 10/25: The chassis materials for the iPhone 15 lineup have taken another twist. After posting this article, I was contacted by a longtime source who claims that Apple is also looking into upgrading standard iPhone 15 models from aluminum to stainless steel. Conversely, this was shot by LeaksApplePro. Although the sources are contradictory, I would tend to side with LeaksApplePro for several reasons.
First is the cost. While Apple has the leeway to introduce titanium for an “iPhone 15 Ultra” and raise the price due to its new position as a premium flagship model, the price of the rest of the lineup is critical. Notably, bringing the A16 chip to standard models already significantly increases production costs, while it also closes the gap on the iPhone 15 Pro, which should continue to use stainless steel. This is the kind of brand confusion that Apple will want to avoid.
Also, having three materials would increase differentiation. The Standard and Pro models would retain the look and feel that customers are already familiar with. At the same time, the Ultra would stand out as a massive flagship device that’s potentially as light as the smaller iPhone 15 Pro while being more durable – adding Wow Factor.
Interestingly, a more expensive titanium iPhone 15 Ultra could also help iPhone 15 Plus sales. The current problem for Apple is that multi-year carrier contracts mean the price difference between iPhone models is marginal, so siPhone 14 Plus sales fall short of expectations because the iPhone 14 Pro Max offers much more without adding a big difference to a monthly contract.
But introduce a titanium iPhone 15 Ultra at around $1,500, rising to $2,000, and the $900 iPhone 14 Plus now becomes the go-to option for buyers on a budget who want a big-screen iPhone. Simultaneously, the Ultra launches as an ambitious buy with higher profit margins, bringing glamor and excitement back to the range.
Plus, it fits with Apple’s current (and controversial) strategy of segmenting its core models – iPad, MacBook, Watch – into more affordable slices, while introducing shoot-for-the-moon models into the top of the line. So yes, I predict that iPhones will get much more exciting next year, but also very expensive at the high end.
As I’ve written here before, I think Apple will create a bigger gap between the iPhone 15 Pro and the Pro Max, which might actually be dubbed the Ultra (like the watch) and cost over $1,100 $ – the price of the iPhone 14 Pro Max today.
On the one hand, it would be a tough pill to swallow following the near-global price increases (the US and China were excluded) introduced with the iPhone 14 lineup. On the other hand, Apple has shown its desire to build best-in-class devices in other product lines (regardless of cost), and this would align with the move to the “Ultra” brand.
Add the rumored Switch to a Thunderbolt 4-powered USB-C port, dual front cameras and, in the A17, the industry’s first 3nm chipset, and Apple just might be making an iPhone, which customers are ready to go broke for. Considering the difficulty of the standard iPhone 14 models, this can also make a lot of sense…
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