It’s been a bit of a disappointing week in college football. There is only one game in the Top 25 with a gap of less than double digits. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t betting value to be found on the schedule.
For example, Wake Forest is an undervalued team in their game against Louisville, and there’s a total on the board that might seem low to the casual observer, but probably seems huge for the Big Ten teams involved. And finally, can Tennessee avoid the dreaded stain of anticipation by taking care of business against Kentucky with Georgia on deck next week?
I break it all down in my top college football picks to bet in Week 9.
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Week 9 college football picks and predictions
Wake Forest -3.5 (-110)
This line seems a little disrespectful to the Demon Deacons.
Wake Forest is a far from undefeated overtime loss to Clemson and Sam Hartman has been the ACC’s best quarterback this season.
Since returning from a blood clot issue at the start of the season, Hartman has cooked up opposing defenses. The lead flagger threw for 1,755 yards with 21 touchdowns to just three interceptions.
That includes throwing six no-choice touchdowns in that game against Clemson. A defense that, in theory, is much tougher than what he and the Deacs will face when they visit the Louisville Cardinals on Saturday afternoon.
A quick look at Louisville’s stats and you’ll see it looks like the Cardinals are doing a good job against the pass, ranking 51st in yards per game. A deeper dive tells us more.
For starters, Louisville hasn’t played as many great passing teams. You can make the argument the last time the Cardinals faced a decent passing offense was back on Oct. 1 against Boston College where Phil Jurkovec went a crazy 18-for-21 for 304 yards and three passing passes. hit. The Cardinals rank 90th in opposing yards per attempt and 80th in opponent’s completion percentage this season.
In addition to this, the defense of the deacons has also grown stronger. They’ve allowed just 46 runs in their last three games and have been solid against the run all season, giving up less than four yards per carry this season.
That should play well against Cards quarterback Malik Cunningham, who, while dynamic on the court, has been an inconsistent passer this season.
Ultimately, Louisville won’t be able to keep up with Hartman and Wake Forest, as the Deacs maintain their trend of cashing in on ATS bets.
Northwestern vs. Iowa Under 37.5 (-110)
Northwestern visits Iowa in what might be the Big Ten’s ugliest game of the season. The total for this game sits at 37.5. Now, that might seem like a low number for some, but for those teams, it might as well be a mountain.
Northwestern has lost six consecutive games since its opening win over Nebraska. That streak includes embarrassing losses to FCS Southern Illinois and Miami, Ohio, with the Wildcats scoring just 13 points per game in their last four games.
And even though things aren’t going so well in Iowa right now, the Hawkeyes’ defense is still elitist. They rank in the top 10 in the nation in total defense and scoring and have held opponents to 10 points or less five times this season.
Then there’s the Iowa offense. The best way to describe this unit has to be like a dumpster fire.
Whether it’s the terrible quarterback play or the nepotism involved with head coach Kirk Ferentz and his son/offensive coordinator Brian, it’s just a mess. The Hawkeyes rank dead last in the nation in total yards per game, 129th in yards per game and 128th in scoring, with a miniscule 14 points per game.
Spencer Petras was finally bad enough against Ohio State last week to force the team’s hand to make a move. But backup Alex Padilla was no better, going just 5-for-10 for 32 yards and a pick.
The Northwest’s pass defense is good enough to maintain those ugly numbers, so expect the Hawkeyes to rely on their running game. That means milking the clock for an offense that already ranks 96th in seconds per game.
Arguably the best attacking player on both teams is their punter, which means long pitches for bad fouls. Barring a multitude of turnovers, this game can barely break 30 points overall.
TN -12 (-110)
Kentucky being overrated is a hill I’m ready to die on this season. So that certainly won’t change when they visit arguably the best team in the country. It’s still hard to believe I’m referring to Tennessee, but welcome to college football in 2022.
Let’s start with the Kentucky fade.
Although Will Levis could be a first-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, he doesn’t have much time to show it. The Big Blue offensive line is arguably the worst in the SEC.
Levis was sacked seven times in the three SEC games he played. In fact, Kentucky’s O line ranks 129th in the nation in sack rate. And while the return of Chris Rodriguez has helped the running game, the team is still averaging just 3.3 yards per attempt this season.
Even when things are going well, it’s still a Wildcats offense that’s averaging just 21.5 points per game against the SEC. It won’t fly against this Tennessee team.
Because, speaking of stealing, that’s exactly what this Volunteers offense does. They lead the nation in total yards and points, and quarterback Hendon Hooker has been outstanding. Like, Outstanding Heisman Trophy.
Although Kentucky has a solid defense, it’s not like they were the first good unit the Vols have come up against. Pitt couldn’t slow them down. Neither does LSU. And Alabama certainly couldn’t do it, and this Crimson Tide team ranks fifth in opposing yards per play.
I find it hard to believe that this Kentucky defense is going to be the one that finally slows Hooker down.
Ultimately, Tennessee almost forces you to play in a shootout. That means more assists for Levis behind that suspect offensive line. And even though the Vols’ defense is nowhere near elite, they do a good job of forcing turnovers, ranking 29th in the nation in takeaways against FBS opponents.
Oh, and have you seen those bad boys the Vols wear to this game?
????????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????#GBO ????#DICKSHouseofSportKNX pic.twitter.com/5sUrIG6uSq
— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) October 25, 2022
At home. The night. In front of 100,000 rabid Tennessee fans. I put the dots down and I feel good about it.
Covers college football betting analysis
Week 9 odds preview
Florida vs. Georgia (-22.5)
This year’s edition of the world’s largest outdoor cocktail party might be more interesting than this massive spread suggests. Anthony Richardson and the Gators have struggled, but are they more than three touchdowns worse than a Georgia team that’s 4-3 ATS and looking ahead with a huge game against the Tennessee looming next week?
Colorado State to Boise State (O/U: 42.5)
Colorado State has played seven games this season. All seven games landed under the total. That’s thanks to an offense that’s second weakest in the nation at just 12.9 points per game. This week, they travel to Boise State to face one of the best defenses in the country.
Ohio State to Penn State (O/U: 60.5)
That total just seems a little too low. For my money, Ohio State has the best offense in the country. This team is averaging nearly 50 points per game and faces a Penn State defense that gave up a 40-burger to Michigan.
The other thing to love about the Over here is that Penn State’s offense has improved this season and goes against an untested Buckeyes defense. The Nittany Lions should score 20-24 points and help send this game to eclipse the total.
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