It’s not often that we see a win-win exchange in the National Hockey League where both teams realize instant advantages.
This is usually because trading markets are set up between buyers and sellers – the latter typically moving assets when winning is no longer a priority, with those assets yielding future returns in the form of prospects and trade choices. repechage.
This scenario occurs in most salary-capped sports. But sometimes two teams can conspire on a trade that sees the productivity of both teams improve quickly.
As a Buffalo Bills fan, I like to highlight the team’s acquisition of superstar receiver Stefon Diggs from the Minnesota Vikings in March 2020 for a series of draft picks, including a first-rounder. Within weeks, Minnesota turned that first-round pick into Justin Jefferson, an elite receiver in his own right. There was a lot more context to the deal, but Buffalo snagged a critically important weapon following a lengthy rebuild, while Minnesota were able to shed a somewhat disgruntled player and replace their almost one-to-one production.
I think Buffalo may have managed to make that kind of trade once again, but this time in the NHL.
Remember last season’s mega trade that saw Jack Eichel traded to the Vegas Golden Knights for draft picks and a pair of forwards Peyton Krebs and Alex Tuch?
We didn’t know exactly how this trade would play out, and to some extent we still don’t. At the time, Eichel, Tuch and Krebs were all suffering from significant injuries, with Eichel’s neck surgery being by far the most concerning. On the Buffalo side, the franchise was mired in a seemingly endless series of on-ice trivia. Why should we expect this deal to happen when so many have not?
That brings me to this season. If you haven’t caught either team in action yet, you’ve missed out. The Golden Knights have shaken off a two-season slump and are 5-2-0 (second in the NHL) to open October. The Sabers have been just as good, starting their season with a 4-1-0 record (seventh in the NHL). And who is driving the bus? Eichel in Vegas and Tuch in Buffalo.
Let’s start with Eichel. He was the jackpot of the deal, and it was his ability to play that was supposed to trigger a regular snake-bitten Vegas attack. He has seven points (three goals, four assists) in seven games, so individual production has been there in spades. But his line – which mostly featured Reilly Smith and Phil Kessel, though we also saw him starring Mark Stone – was electric.
We had a reasonable suspicion that, when healthy, Eichel would be able to conduct a meaningful attack. He’s a wonderful point guard and distributor, and on a Vegas team that owns the puck better than most, there would be plenty of opportunities. What’s interesting is that his defensive numbers are boosted, thanks in large part to playing on a puck-dominating team (HockeyViz):
Now let’s look at Tuch. He’s always been a reliable scorer in the middle of the six, but the Syracuse, NY native has upped his game since the trade. Tuch is averaging 1.1 goals per 60 minutes played since the trade, which (among qualified skaters) puts him in the NHL’s top 100, and tied with Brandon Saad of St. Louis and Trevor Zegras of Anaheim.
Tuch has been a man on a mission so far this season, scoring six goals (seven points overall) in the first five games. He plays with similar teammates to last season, with Tage Thompson at center and Jeff Skinner on the other side.
Just like the Eichel line in Vegas, this trio makes music:
Expected goals are a bit more aggressive than actual goals, but there’s a context behind that. Chief among them: Buffalo is not a puck-dominating team and has played a lot with the point guard this season, which tends to lend itself to generating less total volume of shots on the offensive side.
What’s hugely important for this rebuilding Sabers team is that expected goals are well above break-even – indicating overperformance and the kind of territorial play that, over periods, can lead to high goal differentials. And yes, this line is almost three goals better than its opponents in actual goals per 60 minutes played.
It will take us many more months and years to have a real winner and a real loser from this agreement. But one of hockey’s biggest trades in recent history is, at least so far, big results for two teams up in October.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey
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