The American Game of the Week features a Super Bowl 54 rematch when Kansas City visits Levi’s Stadium to take on San Francisco. Find out why we’re backing the road team on Sunday in our Chiefs vs 49ers betting picks.
Week 7 of the NFL season is already here, and we have a terrific non-conference game when the Kansas City Chiefs 4-2 meet the San Francisco 49ers 3-3.
Both sides enter this contest after heavy losses. Kansas City suffered a 24-20 home loss to the Buffalo Bills, and the Atlanta Falcons doubled the 49ers’ score in the Niners’ road loss to the Falcons. Who will win this marquee match?
Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for this showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, October 23.
Also be sure to check out the full Phil Naessen match betting analysis before kick-off!
Chiefs vs 49ers best odds
Chiefs vs 49ers picks and predictions
We have a rematch of their Super Bowl 54 reunion, which Kansas City won in exciting fashion from behind. I thought about just going for the moneyline on Sunday, but the Chiefs will win this game, and it will be by more than one point.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be looking to bounce back from a tough home loss to the Bills. He threw a pair of interceptions alongside 338 yards and a few touchdowns against one of the best defenses in the game. Mahomes is 3rd in passing yards and his 17 TD passes are tied with Josh Allen for first place in the league.
Mahomes is likely missing former teammate Tyreek Hill, but tight end Travis Kelce has picked up the extra slack and leads the team with seven TD receptions. Offseason acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster earned his first TD reception in the loss to the Bills, and wides Mecole Hardman and Marquez-Valdes Scantling are having decent seasons.
The San Francisco 49ers defense ranks 3rd overall DVOA but 7th overall. They allowed four touchdowns last week against Atlanta, and Kansas City will be in for its toughest competition this season. CB Chavarious Ward and SS Talanoa Hufanga are both questionable, and Mahomes will have an easier time without these two getting dressed.
Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been steady, throwing for 1,153 passing yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Deebo Samuel leads the team in targets with 136 extra rushing yards and a TD. Brandon Aiyuk leads the team with three TD receptions, and TE George Kittle saw 10 targets last week.
The Chiefs’ defensive DVOA is lousy. They rank 28th overall with better running defense than passing defense, which has more to do with opponents watching the scoreboard than anything. CB Rashad Fenton is absent on Sunday, which should make it easier for Jimmy G to find Aiyuk or Samuel for a big.
This contest has all the makings of a shootout. Kansas City has faced a demanding schedule so far, and Mahomes and Co. won’t be shaken in the least by the 49ers defense. Look for the Chiefs’ QB to lean on Kelce, and the Niners’ battered defense will struggle to contain a duo that has connected for 42 scoring strikes since 2018.
San Francisco will respond in kind, but the 49ers offense is average at best, and that won’t be enough to top the number of points their defense is giving Kansas City.
my best bet: Leaders -1 (-110 to Caesars)
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Chiefs vs 49ers spread analysis
I’m going with the Chiefs -2.5, but here are some additional notes I have for the side bet. The Chiefs have lost two of their last four games, which doesn’t sit well with Andy Reid.
Since 2013, Reid and the Chiefs are 23-20 ATS after a loss and 29-20 as an away favorite. 49ers running back Jeff Wilson has done a great job leading the football with the league’s 12th fastest yards.
Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire went for 92 yards against Tampa Bay but hasn’t made more than 10 carries since. He’s a little battered but was involved in the passing game with a TD reception.
The Chiefs don’t need big numbers from their RB to succeed, but a powerful rushing offense would help set Mahomes up for greater success. Mahomes is 13-2-1 ATS when favored by three runs or less.
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Chiefs vs 49ers Over/Under Analysis
The 49 point total seems a bit low for this one, and I’m leaning towards the Over.
The 49ers defense allowed 28 points on the road against the Falcons, which worried me a bit. That’s double their average points allowed, and the No. 1 Chiefs’ offense is perhaps a little better than Atlanta’s.
Kansas City allows the 19th most total yards in the game, as well as the 24th most points allowed. Look for Garoppolo and Samuel to connect multiple times against a soft pass defense allowing 2.5 TDs per contest. San Francisco has averaged 29.3 points from its three wins this season but only 11 points from its three losses.
This week, the 49ers acquired RB Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers. He’s an impact player, but we don’t know what he will or won’t do on Sunday.
Chiefs vs 49ers betting trend you need to know
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last six games. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs 49ers.
Chiefs vs 49ers game information
Location: | Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California |
Date: | Sunday, October 23, 2022 |
To start up: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
TV: | FOX |
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