Week 8 of the NFL season is coming pretty quickly to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football.
Tampa Bay is still reeling from the worst loss of the 2022 season, losing 21-3 to Carolina as the 13-point road favorite last Sunday. The loss was the Bucs’ fourth in five games, as they trailed an 0-5 against the spread skid in this non-conference matchup.
Baltimore hasn’t been much kinder to NFL bettors, failing to cover in four straight games (0-3-1 ATS), and has traded wins and losses over the first seven weeks of football. The Ravens escaped a close 23-20 divisional battle with Cleveland in Week 7 but fell short by 6.5 points.
Well, at least someone will leave an ATS winner in Week 8.
I break down the point spread and Total Over/Under for Thursday Night Football and give my top NFL picks and predictions for Ravens vs Buccaneers on October 27.
Best Ravens vs Buccaneers Odds
Ravens vs Buccaneers picks and predictions
The injured roster has been a hangout for the Buccaneers since the summer, with a rash of ailments affecting just about every unit in this franchise. Week 8 is no exception.
The Bucs have a short turnaround before hosting Baltimore, giving little recovery time to a receiving corps that had three of its top four wide spreaders and the starting tight end not participating in Monday’s practice. The only healthy target is WR Chris Godwin, who, oddly enough, had been slowed by injuries since Week 1.
Godwin has been busy since getting healthy in October, recording 25 targets for 13 catches and a grand total of 138 yards over the past two games. His instant count has grown in those outings, with 64 and 63 games over the past two weeks. Those numbers could continue to climb given the state of the Buccaneers’ WRs.
Top receiver Mike Evans, who was targeted 15 times in Week 7, was hampered by an ankle injury late in the game and is questionable, as is fellow wide Russell Gage, who was targeted five times against Carolina. Tight end Cameron Brate is struggling with a neck injury and veteran WR Julio Jones has been sidelined in the previous three games with a knee injury.
Tampa Bay’s offense and quarterback Tom Brady are under fire after a toothless offense in Week 7, in which the Bucs averaged 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Overall, Brady and the passing game aren’t threatening enemies with the deep ball (7.5 air yards forecast vs. 5.3 air yards completed) and although Brady isn’t forcing it – entering Week 8 with just one interception – head coach Todd Bowles is begging for explosive shots on the field.
“We congratulate him on not throwing a pick, but we need more big plays on offense, more consistent plays from everyone,” Bowles told the media of Brady and the offense by the pass.
If Tampa Bay is going to let him fly there in Week 8, Godwin looks like the best — maybe the only — option and the Ravens’ secondary looks susceptible to some home runs. Baltimore currently has starting corners Marcus Peters (quad) and Marlon Humphrey (hamstring) missing practice Monday and is already without S Marcus Williams.
During the season, the Ravens’ pass defense has been haphazard, giving up 261.3 yards per game (26th) and ranking 23rd in EPA per backstop allowed with opposing passers boasting a 48 pass rate. 3% (26th). Baltimore has slowed quality QBs like Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, but the secondary could be dangerously thin for Thursday Night Football.
Godwin’s yardage prop for Week 8 is 72.5 yards — a mark he’s eclipsed only once so far in 2022 (95 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 6). However, until Sunday’s loss, he had exceeded his total receiving yards in three straight games. Even against the Panthers, Godwin was extremely busy with seven catches on 13 targets, but only passed for 43 yards as Carolina began to protect against the pass with a second-half lead.
During his time alongside Brady, Godwin was targeted more than 10 times in nine games, easily topping his Week 8 projection of 72.5 yards in all but two of those contests, including Week 7. He posted more of 100 receiving efforts in five of those contests.
Given his recent target and instant count activity, Bowles pushing for explosive plays against a depleted Ravens secondary, and potentially being the only healthy starting WR for Brady, I like that Godwin tops that tally by 72.5 yards Thursday night.
my best bet: Chris Godwin Over 72.5 receiving yards (-110)
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Ravens vs Buccaneers spread analysis
The anticipation line for this non-conference matchup was at Tampa Bay -3 last week, one point shorter than the offseason gap set this summer. But after the Bucs’ poor performance in Carolina last weekend, this first official game of Week 8 hit the board at Tampa Bay -1.5 and quickly jumped the fence with Baltimore as the favorite and reached -2, 5 before returning to Bucs +1.5.
Tampa Bay has a number of injuries showing up on the depth chart, especially on offense, and little time to rest and recover before the midweek game. The Buccaneers have already embittered many bettors with their inability to cover the spread and that early money fades a splintered offense under Brady who ranks 28th in points per play.
The Ravens are also a tough team to back against the spread, given their terrible tendency to crumble in the second half. Baltimore sits in 6th place in the defensive DVOA in the first half at Football Outsiders, but sees that metric slip to 26th in the final two quarters. This led to a series of blown leads and blown bets for Baltimore backers.
According to DraftKings, the Ravens’ second-half snafus aren’t a concern for early action compared to Tampa Bay’s utter incompetence, with 79% of bets and 89% of handle supports visiting Baltimore Thursday night.
Ravens vs Buccaneers Over/Under Analysis
That total officially opened at 44 points on Sunday night and fell to 43 points before climbing to 45 points over the past two days. The DraftKings books return 71% of the number of bets and 75% of the total handle at the start on the Over this Thursday evening.
Although there are injuries in both offensive units, the defensive side of the ball is also running out for Baltimore and Tampa Bay.
The Bucs have stars like DE Akiem Hicks, S Antoine Winfield Jr. and CB Carlton Davis III listed as questionable, while the Ravens’ depth chart has both starting corners Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey questionable along with DE Calais Campbell.
Overall, neither defense has been up to snuff this season. Tampa Bay has started to show cracks, slipping from No. 1 in the EPA allowed per game in the first three weeks to 27th in this advanced metric over the last four games. Baltimore has struggled for an identity under new DC Mike MacDonald all season, with the 29th-worst EPA cleared/played in the league.
Heading into Week 8, the Ravens and Bucs are among the best Under bets in football with Baltimore at 2-5 O/U and Tampa Bay at 1-6 O/U.
Ravens vs Buccaneers betting trend you need to know
Since Tom Brady showed up in pirate waters in 2020, the Buccaneers have closed as underdogs in just six games, including the playoffs. Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in those contests when capturing points, with a 2-4 Over/Under record in those outings. If this spread remains in place, it would be the first time in 2022 that Brady & Co. has bet on the underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for the Ravens vs. Buccaneers.
Ravens vs Buccaneers game information
Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida |
Date: | Thursday, October 27, 2022 |
To start up: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
TV: | Amazon Premier |
Opening dimensions: | Buccaneers -2.0, 44 O/U |
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