By Sportlogiq Staff (@Sportlogiq)
The NHL season is a few weeks away, so it’s time for the first edition of our weekly Power Rankings.
We use a weighted approach that rates teams based on goal differential, expected goal differential, recent performance and schedule strength. The aim is to let you know how the teams fared and how we expect them to fare in the coming weeks.
Our best team right now is the St. Louis Blues. The Blues have played the fewest games of any team, but you can’t ignore the results.
St. Louis is a perfect 3-0-0 with wins over Columbus, Seattle and Edmonton. The workload gets busier this week with games against the Jets, Oilers, Predators and Canadiens. The Blues are in the top five in goal differential and expected goals, so the process looks as solid as the results.
Our top-ranked Canadian team, the Ottawa Senators, sits 10th in our rankings.
Senators fans had high hopes for their team after the additions of Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux, and the team has delivered so far. Ottawa averages 4.2 goals per game, fourth in the NHL. As mentioned, the process is important in our rankings and the Senators currently have the second-best expected goal differential in the league.
Team captain Brady Tkachuk leads offensively with eight points, tied for 10th in the league. Tkachuk continues to be one of the league’s best at producing high-quality chances with his 14 slot shots ranking ninth in the NHL.
The Calgary Flames are next, ranking 11th on our list. The Flames have won four of their five games to start the season despite their goalie not being at the level we’re used to. Calgary ranks 24th in goals saved above expectations at minus-3.1. It’s still early days and with some strong performances in goal, we expect the Flames to increase our roster before long.
In 12th place are the Toronto Maple Leafs. There’s already been plenty of drama surrounding the Leafs despite their respectable 4-2-0 record. Ilya Samsonov has been solid in goal since replacing injured Matt Murray. The Leafs sit 23rd in goals per game despite creating a high volume of quality chances. Expect Auston Matthews and company to start finding the back of the net more and the Leafs to move into the top 10 of our list as early as next week.
The Edmonton Oilers sit 19th in our inaugural standings. The 2-3-0 Oilers are in the middle of the pack in goal differential and expected goals and rank 20th overall in isolated impact on goaltenders (goals saved above expectations). The power play is more dangerous than ever, clicking at 35.3 percent, however, more offense will be needed at five-on-five for the Oilers to move up our roster. Edmonton is averaging a five-for-five goal per game, tied with the Coyotes for last place in the NHL.
The 3-3-0 Montreal Canadiens debut on our list at No. 25. The Canadiens have established a respectable record as they have the worst expected goal differential of any team. Wins may be rare this season, but this Canadiens team proves it won’t be a breeze and has certainly been entertaining. Cole Caufield has four goals in six games and Arber Xhekaj is fast becoming a home favorite.
The Winnipeg Jets are 26th overall, winning two of their first five games. The Jets rank 26th in goal differential and 24th in expected goal differential. It’s early days, but the question of whether Winnipeg could improve defensively remains. Winnipeg has allowed 3.4 goals per game, 24th overall, and ranks in the bottom 10 in expected goals, slots and shots from inside slots.
The NHL’s only winless team sits last in the standings, but if it’s any consolation to Vancouver Canucks fans, their team sits 30th in our standings. A projected goal differential of 19th won’t make fans feel any better, but we don’t expect the Canucks to be the lowest this season.
Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for the Canucks, evidenced by their NHL multi-goal record to start the season. However, the Canucks’ defense appears to be a problem as currently constructed. Vancouver has been bleeding its chances for several years now and currently ranks 29th in goals against and 27th in chances to score against per game. The Canucks face a relentlessly aggressive Carolina Hurricanes tonight.
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