Since the 1960s, adventurers from all over the world have taken bad trips to California.
After losing four straight games, including three straight in California, the Toronto Maple Leafs feel giddy and need to reassess their entire situation.
Toronto reached a new breaking point after losing 4-3 in overtime to the lowly Anaheim Ducks on Sunday, blowing a 3-1 lead in the process. After six straight first-round playoff losses, there are many calls for major changes to the organization, which may involve the firing of head coach Sheldon Keefe or general manager Kyle Dubas.
Toronto is a market that generates a million takes even on a slow news day, and with the Maple Leafs crawling to a 4-4-2 record during the easiest part of their schedule, it’s time to evaluate all the options the team can undertake. We will consider this as a form of group therapy, if you wish!
Late Sheldon Keefe
Keefe has been behind the bench since November 2019, taking over from Mike Babcock, who was fired after the team stumbled out of the gate. History has a peculiar way of repeating itself, but the circumstances are different: Babcock was first praised for his ability to get a young team off the ground, but he was eventually disconnected, and his demanding, old-fashioned ways to manage its players have been fired upon.
Keefe, who had a long track record in player development with the AHL’s Toronto Marlies, was seen as the right man for the job. He is still highly regarded within the organization, but patience is running out among the fan base.
It would certainly be an inopportune time for the Maple Leafs to fire Keefe. Last summer, Bruce Cassidy, Peter DeBoer and Jim Montgomery were available, all of whom have the resume and pedigree to gain credibility with the roster, while placating the fan base. Of course, we don’t want to just recycle the same roster of 40 men who are in perpetual consideration, and the Maple Leafs could also have used this as a time to explore alternative options and rising stars within the industry.
Barry Trotz is available and recently spoke about his interest in leading an Original Six team. Trotz said no decision will be made immediately and that he appears to be enjoying a brief training reprieve after being inexplicably dropped by the New York Islanders last spring. Trotz is the NHL’s top defensive specialist and would change Toronto’s tendency to play a dangerous style of play. He is the third most successful coach in NHL history. Trotz would be a noticeable improvement over Keefe, it’s just a matter of whether he wants the job if Keefe is fired.
There are stylistic reasons why Keefe can be fired. Under his leadership, the Maple Leafs have been a great team during the regular season, but they’re still prone to defensive lapses, and the lapses have turned into outright defensive neglect in the first 10 games this season. year. Auston Matthews is nowhere near the pace required to score 60 goals again and Toronto’s top six forwards appear stagnant, with the team’s total possessions indicating they are playing at a league average rate. The average is not enough.
There’s also a practical consideration: if the Maple Leafs are looking for immediate impact, the path to instant results would be accelerated more easily by changing coaches, not general managers. Keefe may get the ax instead of Dubas due to the circumstances, although you could argue that both are equally to blame for the mess the Maple Leafs find themselves in.
Late Kyle Dubas
As part of our season preview, I wrote about how Kyle Dubas is dealing with the ultimate referendum entering the seventh year of the Matthews-Mitch Marner era. October is now coming to an end and the proverbial vote on Dubas could be brought forward.
Toronto’s struggles are a direct reflection of Dubas. He built the current roster in his own face, choosing speed and skill above all else, dismissing the idea that the Maple Leafs need more grit or determination to finally get past the first round and beyond. Dubas has drawn criticism for his approach to roster building, particularly the idea of paying his stars premium money and filling the roster with minimal offers from veterans.
Dubas is almost certainly hyper-aware of calls to his work. The traveling media contingent that traveled to California to cover the Toronto roadside stand asked Dubas to update reporters on the team’s status. Maple Leafs public relations denied the request, stating that his media appearances are usually scheduled well in advance. In itself, fair game. But let’s call it what it is: Surely the Maple Leafs — and Dubas, by extension — need to know they’re the best story in the league and questions about the team’s future won’t go away. , barring a sudden winning streak.
Initially hailed as an early proponent of analytics, the rest of the league has caught up and applied Dubas’ data-driven decision-making style. And when you build a roster as talented as the Maple Leafs that consistently underperforms expectations, there has to be a measure of guilt.
Maple Leafs assistant general manager Hayley Wickenheiser is up for promotion, and having an inside option could certainly make the uncomfortable decision to fire Dubas a little easier to digest.
Redeem one of the stars
Toronto’s core is made up of defending Hart Trophy winner at Matthews, star forwards Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander and veteran defensemen Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie and Jake Muzzin. Let’s start at the top: Matthews is the only player who cannot and should not be traded under any circumstances.
Muzzin is currently on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) with a neck injury, freeing up $5.625 million from Toronto’s LTIR pool. There hasn’t been a clever internal solution to account for Muzzin’s minutes – Justin Holl in particular is struggling miserably without his normal partner – and the team would be interested in pursuing Arizona Coyotes star defenseman Jakob Chychrun. , a 24-year-old player. southpaw with a booming shot and a checkerboard injury of his own.
Pursuing Chychrun without trading a key member seems like the Maple Leafs’ optimal solution, but it would likely require a first-round pick, a top prospect like Nick Robertson or Matthew Knies, and a promising young NHL player like Rasmus Sandin. . Despite the future to save what remains of the present?
As for extracting value from the rest of the core, that’s also tricky. Marner carries a cap of $10.93 million through 2024-25 and, specifically, also has a built-in no-move clause. Although he is often the subject of direct criticism that most players of his stature avoid, Marner wants to be a lifelong member of his childhood. club and it seems unfathomable that he would give up his NMC. There also doesn’t seem to be a clear hypothetical trade in the mix, given Marner’s contract status and his value as a league top-20 player: Matthew Tkachuk was just dealt to the Panthers from Florida and Colorado Avalanche certainly wouldn’t trade Mikko Rantanen for Toronto’s star point guard.
Nylander’s cap is just under $7 million, which is a bargain for the Maple Leafs. There’s no reason for them to trade him, unless it’s also for a player entering his prime with a below-market deal, or an array of first-round picks if he decides to. add some future flexibility. Tavares was arguably Toronto’s best player to start the year, but he’s 32 and it’s unlikely the Maple Leafs can find anyone who replicates his immediate value either.
Although they struggled to start the year, the Leafs seem unlikely to break their best defensive duo of Rielly-Brodie, especially because the defensive corps has been in flux due to injuries to Muzzin and Timothy Liljegren. . It would be so easy to hit send a trade in theory, but figuring out who the next coins may be is easier said than done.
stay the course
Nobody would blame you if you started booing here, but maybe the best thing to do is go back?
Marner was benched on Sunday after a series of errors that led to two Ducks goals and was among the star players picked by Keefe for underperforming at the start of the year. And yet, he doesn’t take it personally. Marner prepared for an us vs. the world complex after Sunday’s game.
“We started way worse last year and everyone tried to wreak havoc on our brains,” Marner said after the game on Sunday. “That’s not going to happen with us. We’re going home now. It’s time to regroup.”
Toronto’s stars — with the exception of Tavares and Nylander — just haven’t been good enough to start the year. However, there’s plenty of room for optimism around Matthews: He leads the NHL in shots and penalties taken 5-on-5, while ranking second in expected individual goals and chances, per Natural Stat Trick . Matthews is due to suffer a Vesuvian eruption soon enough, and the Maple Leafs should reasonably follow his lead.
There’s a lot of animosity towards a core group that died out in six straight first-round series. We’re also talking about a group that has, at a minimum, won 57% of its regular season games, lost to the defending Stanley Cup champion in seven games last season, as well as two heartbreaking losses in seven games at hands one on the tied Bruins side.
We are not trying to make excuses for the heart of Toronto and the collective apathy, rage, desperation and indifference are all valid. But it’s worth remembering that there have only been 10 games and it may be wise to be patient.
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