The Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) and San Francisco 49ers (3-3) face off in a Super Bowl LIV rematch this Sunday at Levi’s Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX). Below we analyze the lines of Tipico Sportsbook around the Chiefs vs. 49ers oddsand make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Chiefs defeated the 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV in February 2020. That was the last time these teams played each other. Overall, the series is tied 7-7 between the Chiefs and Niners. They faced each other twice during the Patrick Mahomes era, with the Chiefs QB achieving 6 TDs, 2 INTs and 2 wins in those games. Meanwhile, QB Jimmy Garoppolo has 4 TDs and 2 INTs in the 49er against Kansas City.
In Week 6, the Chiefs narrowly lost to the Buffalo Bills 24-20. Mahomes’ attempt to lead Kansas City on a game-winning drive was thwarted when he threw an interception just a minute from time. The Chiefs failed to cover the 2.5-point spread with the loss and have covered only twice this season (2-4 on aggregate ATS).
The 49ers lost 28-14 to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 6, with Garoppolo throwing 2 INTs. San Francisco didn’t cover the 3.5-point spread and split ATS this season (3-3 overall ATS). However, the 49ers seem to have a boost on offense as they just traded for the Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey. It’s unclear if McCaffrey will play, but it’s been reported that McCaffrey will likely be involved in red zone packages in Week 7.
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Chiefs alongside the 49ers
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; go to the USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds center for a complete list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:50 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Chiefs -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | 49ers +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread (ATS): Leaders -1.5 (-112) | 49ers +1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Chiefs at 49ers key injuries
Chiefs
- BC Rashad Fenton (hamstrings) out
- OF mike danna (calf) debatable
- LO Joe Thuney (ankle) questionable
49ers
- DL Arik Armstead (feet, ankle) outside
- S Talanoa Hufanga (concussion) questionable
- BC Charvarius District (groin) debatable
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49ers chiefs select and predict
Prediction
Chiefs 20, 49ers 17
Moneyline
The 49ers pose a tough game for the Chiefs thanks to their solid defense, which means it’s likely going to be a low-scoring game. I expect the Niners to hold Kansas City at bay as the Chiefs’ offensive tackles struggle with top passers and Mahomes continues to develop a relationship with his unnamed passers. Travis Kelce.
However, KC’s defense is no slouch. He held QB Josh Allen and the Bills – the league’s 2nd best offense – at 24 points last week. Keeping Garoppolo under that shouldn’t be a big deal if the Chiefs can put on decent pressure and contain big plays.
This one should be close, but eventually I’ll go for the HEADS -125 to shake off their Week 6 loss and pick up a win heading into their bye week. The best QB prevails in this game.
Against the spread
The Chiefs have struggled to cover all season, but I’m not confident enough in San Francisco’s scoring ability either. With the juice on the money line and spread so close together, you better bet on the money line with this game. AVOID the propagation.
More less
Even with the Chiefs averaging nearly 30 points per game, I like the LESS THAN 48.5 (-105) for this one. The Chiefs have scored 24 or fewer points in three games this season and the Niners are averaging 20.3 points per game. The Chiefs defense allowed 24.8 points per game and the San Francisco defense allowed 14.8. Given these numbers and recent games, it seems likely that it will be around the 44-point range at most.
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