NFL Week 7 Picks
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Chris Raybon: Last week I noted that the Packers didn’t match the Jets’ defense well due to their ability to pressure, and it’s more or less the same this week for Green Bay against the odds/team of Washington football ยป > Commanders. Washington ranks third in pressure rate (29.3%), and the fact that their pressure rate is seven points higher than the blitz rate (28.4%, 10th) indicates they can go home with their foursome race.
Without Davante Adams to win quickly off the line, Rodgers struggles under pressure, his passer rating dropping from 103.2 from a clean pocket to 65.0 under duress. Rodgers started leaning more heavily on Robert Tonyan last week, connecting with him on 10 of 12 passes for 90 yards, but that might not be there this week as Washington is third in the DVOA on passing at TEs.
You’d think Matt LaFleur would end up dialing in more running plays given the presence of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, but that doesn’t seem like a quick fix either, as Washington’s defense ranks fifth in DVOA. against the race.
Washington’s offense will be no worse with Taylor Heinicke than it was with Carson Wentz (IR, thumb) and should have success with its three-headed backfield of Brian Robinson Jr., Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic against a Packers defense ranked dead last in DVOA against the run.
The Commanders also have a decided advantage over Special Teams, ranking fifth in DVOA while the Packers sit 30th, which could loom large in what should be a low-scoring affair.
According to our Action Labs data, non-divisional domestic dogs in week 7+7 or less in low total games achieved 141-102-7 (58%) against the spread (ATS).
Despite facing Bailey Zappe, Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson for half of their games, the Packers still have just one win over 3 points this season.
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Chris Raybon: The Giants are lucky to be 5-1, but they compare well to the Jags. The Giants play the third highest rate of men’s coverage and Jacksonville ranks 30th in yards per completion against a man (4.9) and 31st in yards per completion against a man (7.5).
But largely because they’ve faced the Colts twice in six games, the Jaguars have faced the second-highest yard coverage in the league, which inflates their offensive numbers. In last week’s contest, the Colts didn’t even play a single men’s cover shot.
And in both games against Indianapolis, Trevor Lawrence completed 45 of 52 (86.5%) for 400 yards (7.7 yards per attempt) with three touchdowns and no interceptions. In his other four games, he went 88 for 151 (58.3%) for 997 yards (6.6 YPA) with six touchdowns and four interceptions.
On offense, the Giants should be able to ride Saquon Barkley again against a Jags defense that has allowed 155.3 scrimmage yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game to opposing fields over the past three weeks. Having started his career as a turnover machine, Daniel Jones has quietly made ball security a strength, with just four turnovers in six games โ half of Lawrence.
According to our Action Labs data, Jones is 12-4 ATS as a road dog, including a perfect 10-0 ATS as a road dog by less than 8 points.
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Chris Raybon: Pollard has thrown for at least 43 yards in four of six games this season. The two times he hasn’t, both have come up against top-tier running defenses that rank in the DVOA’s top eight at Tampa Bay (eighth) and Washington (fifth). The Lions run defense is nothing like these units, ranking 31st in DVOA.
Pollard is one of the most efficient RBs in the league and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry on 372 attempts. That efficiency has helped Pollard rush for 41 or more yards in 13 of 19 games (68%) since last season despite playing behind Ezekiel Elliott.
I threw Pollard for 49 yards in that game.
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Chris Raybon: Jaire Alexander followed up for the first time last week, stopping Garrett Wilson from having no props/receptions”>catch on four targets as Wilson finished with just one catch for eight yards in the day.
This week, Alexander is a good bet to follow McLaurin, who leads the Commanders with 387 receiving yards this season. McLaurin would be a good bet to drop under that number even if he weren’t likely to be trailed by Alexander, as he’s been held to four receptions or less in four of six games this season and nine of Heinicke’s 15 starts this season. last.
Overall, McLaurin has passed four catches in just eight of 23 games (35%) since the start of last season. I project it for 3.8 catches and about a 67% chance of going under 4.5.
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Chris Raybon: Hubbard will likely lead the Panthers’ backfield in pass shots, but that doesn’t mean he’s a good bet to top his receiving yardage prop.
The Bucs’ defensive front cleared RBs in the passing game, allowing a minimum of 10.8 receiving yards per game at the position. With Lavonte David and Devin White flying at linebacker, the Bucs are allowing just 2.4 yards per target and 3.4 yards per reception to opposing RBs, so Hubbard could catch a handful of balls and still hit the underside. In six games, Todd Bowles’ defense has yet to allow an RB to go over 14 yards, with only one RB going over 12 yards.
The under is 10-0 for RB receiving distance props against the Bucs this year.
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Chris Raybon: Kirk started the season with three six-catch games, but was limited to seven total catches in his last three games. He’s unlikely to explode for big volume against a Giants defense allowing the fewest receptions per game in the league at the WR (9.67).
Kirk’s season average is 4.2 receptions per game, which is what I expected for him. Even if I cautiously increase it to 4.5, its true chance of dropping below 4.5 should be -111, and its true chance of dropping below 5.5 should be -244.
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