LAS VEGAS — John Tavares’ quick start to the season could be explained, at least in part, by a big change he made in the offseason.
After 15 years of working with famed skating coach Dawn Braid — for her entire NHL career in other words — Tavares turned to Paul Matheson, who joined the Leafs as a development consultant to the Leafs. skating during the off-season.
Heading into his 14th NHL season, the Leafs captain was intent on making gains in the speed department.
With help from Matheson, Tavares worked to be lighter on his skates. That, he explained recently, meant changing the way he pushed off the ice. He described some of the work as almost like running on skates and during his post-workout work on Sunday it seemed just like that.
He was light on his feet.
Indeed, Tavares looks a bit more explosive early on, as if he’s gained a half step at 32. It contributed to what was a remarkably successful first effort to return pucks to the offensive zone, including on the power play.
This has led to more scoring opportunities for the Leafs’ current leading scorer.
“He looks really comfortable – really comfortable with the puck, without the puck,” Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said after practice in Vegas on Sunday. “Defensively he’s been really good…I like a lot of things about his game.”
Tavares has done most of his business so far with the man advantage: three goals and five points. He was a chaser around the net, hitting twice with quick hands – once on an underbar flip, another on a tip – over the weekend in Winnipeg.
JOHNNY ROOF 🔝 pic.twitter.com/rCb6RmWzt6
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) October 22, 2022
Two in the evening for Johnny! 🚨 pic.twitter.com/kjjITE2mmB
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) October 23, 2022
It’s early days, but encouraging for the Leafs, Tavares’ shooting rates are up this season:
Tavares rate of fire
Per 60 mins | 2022-23 | 2021-22 | 2020-21 |
---|---|---|---|
Blows |
13.3 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
Attempts |
18.8 |
18.0 |
16.4 |
HD attempts |
9.4 |
6.7 |
6.0 |
Expected objectives |
1.9 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
Goals |
1.7 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
Shooting % |
12.5 |
11.4 |
11.7 |
Note those high-risk attempts – 17 already, the second-highest number in the league so far.
Most intriguing, looking ahead, is whether a slightly faster Tavares can have a greater impact on the five-on-five game.
Tavares is yet to score a five-a-side goal this season and only registered one assist so far.
The Leafs are winning the same 55% of expected goals as last season with their captain, but with slightly improved results defensively.
A Sedins-type treatment helped (68% offensive start percentage). Same with slightly better wheels.
“This offseason has been really good for him,” Keefe noted after Tavares’ two-goal exit. “He was healthy throughout that, and he could really push and really challenge and look to add to his game and improve his game.”
five points
1. Auston Matthews, pt. 1: Auston Matthews is still stuck on a goal, but clearly enough the push is coming.
Matthews’ shooting percentages in his first six NHL seasons: 14.3, 18.2, 14.7, 16.2, 18.5, 17.2.
So far this season: 3.6%.
Matthews scored once on 28 shots.
A bit of bad luck? Obviously.
Until the game against Winnipeg, Matthews also wasn’t generating the same caliber of looks around the net.
The two biggest green diamonds below came against the Jets in what was a resurgent performance from the Leafs’ No. 1 line:
Matthews has just been a little at first. He missed the net on 12 of his 54 attempts (10 wide) and had a number of good looks blocked by dudes who got in the way.
Note: Matthews scored once in his first six games last season and finished with 60 goals (in 73 games).
Level of concern: Low.
2. Auston Matthews, pt. 2: Another early shooting trend for Matthews: he gets few clean chances on the power play.
After six games, Matthews attempted 13 power-play shots but only touched the net four times.
He is yet to score on the power play after leading the team with 16 power play goals last season. He went the extra mile, however, to revive Tavares’ first power-play goal in Winnipeg and fired the shot that Tavares deflected on his second power-play goal in that same game against the Jets.
In the end, it doesn’t matter who scores the goals for the Leafs as long as, well, someone does. But obviously creating better opportunities for the best shooter on the planet would help.
3.Auston Matthews, pt. 3: Another remarkable stat from Matthews since the start: he has won fewer draws, only 48% so far.
Matthews hummed over 56% last season, one of the best numbers in the league.
The fall could be explained by the lower back issue that Matthews seems to be going through.
4. Healthy-ish: The Leafs came so close to disaster early last week.
It happened late in morning practice last Monday, before a game against the Arizona Coyotes that Erik Kallgren was starting.
This meant extra work at the end of skating for Ilya Samsonov, due to an evening off. After taking shots from Nick Robertson and Wayne Simmonds, scratches that night for the Leafs, Samsonov came to the bench uncomfortably.
He showed the medical trainer his left hand, just below the index finger, and winced in discomfort. He tried things with his glove, looked uncomfortable, and quickly walked off the ice with the coach.
General manager Kyle Dubas followed him from the stands.
Luckily for the Leafs, the news was positive: Samsonov was tested and found to be fine. He won his next two starts and remains undefeated as a Leaf.
![](https://oponame.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Leafs-Monday-Morning-Report-The-secret-to-Tavares-quick-start.jpg)
Ilya Samsonov. (James Carey Lauder / USA Today)
5. New Leaf: Nicolas Aube-Kubel looks like someone who is still getting used to living with a new team — once again.
The Leafs are his third team in the past two seasons. He was claimed on waivers by Colorado after starting the year in Philadelphia early last season.
Aube-Kubel hadn’t played with anyone in the current squad before joining the Leafs on a one-year, $1 million contract last summer. The Leafs’ training camp trip to Gravenhurst helped him get to know some of these new teammates, including his golf team of Jake Muzzin, Victor Mete and Kallgren.
“I really like the team,” he said.
Aube-Kubel, who will be eliminated for a second straight game in Vegas, said he was still learning the tendencies of his new linemates with the Leafs – primarily David Kampf and Zach Aston-Reese. He was the most physical player on the team.
“It’s nice to be physical,” Aube-Kubel said. “I think we can add a bit more attack to that. We didn’t have many shots or chances to score.
Dawn-Kubel, so far, has registered only one shot so far. With space, it can be a good one.
“It will get better in the next games,” he said.
bonus points: The Leafs’ most physical defenseman so far, with 19 hits: That would be Rasmus Sandin.
Sandin lands a shot on Perfetti
Dubois jumps Sandin, Bunting and Holl jump i pic.twitter.com/FjgvvcM2iO
—Omar (@TicTacTOmar) October 23, 2022
things i think i think
1. The Leafs need Pierre Engvall to boost the bottom line offensively. He’s the only guy with the potential of Ilya Mikheyev, i.e. a quick threat who might be able to score 20 goals.
Engvall signed a one-year contract worth $2.25 million this summer after scoring 15 goals last season.
The foot injury he sustained prior to camp sets him slightly behind his peers.
Engvall has yet to score a run this season, had just seven shots and eight hits and was barely noticeable before being retired in Winnipeg. He will return to training in Vegas.
If he can’t be a threat in the last six, eventually the Leafs might need to find someone who can.
2. I wouldn’t have predicted Simmonds and Kyle Clifford both playing games in October and doing it while Dawn-Kubel and Aston-Reese were healthy. It’s hard to deny the impact they had as a combo in Winnipeg. It earned them another outing against the Golden Knights. I remain skeptical that either can still help a playoff roster, but maybe they can give the Leafs something odd (advantage, physicality, etc.) as a team. regular season depth wingers (cap space arranged).
point of curiosity
When is the high end breakout coming?
I mentioned Matthews (repeatedly). But what about his line?
This speaks to the ridiculously high standard that Matthews, Mitch Marner and Michael Bunting set last year that their start to the year was only average, even with their glitzy target of 61% expected.
Choose a little further and the eyesight test mostly matches the underlying numbers.
The line generates zone time and opportunities (though not as much as before), but does not convert. More surprising is what happened at the other end, with Matthews, Marner and Bunting dropping more substance than last year.
Last season: 44 shot attempts and 2.0 expected goals in 60 minutes.
This season: 50 shot attempts and 2.4 goals expected in 60 minutes.
![](https://oponame.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/1666666748_89_Leafs-Monday-Morning-Report-The-secret-to-Tavares-quick-start.jpg)
Mitch Marner, Michael Bunting, Auston Matthews. (John E. Sokolowski/USA Today)
That’s starting to change though.
The trio was dominant in Winnipeg, if not on the scoresheet. Most notable were all the turnovers they forced and turned into attacking opportunities, a critical part of the line’s success last season.
“It’s very prevalent in their game,” Keefe said. “They’re elite at stealing the puck, and the work ethic that they have to keep above the puck makes it very difficult for opponents to get out (of the defensive zone). So when they really start, they get the puck two, three, four times in the same shift and wear down their opponent and cause them to lose their structure.
The Leafs coach thought the Jets game was their best outing of the season in that regard.
Matthews, Marner and Bunting are all stuck on a single goal at five-on-five apiece. They combined for 81 last year.
A flood is coming.
(Top photo: James Carey Lauder/USA Today)
Statistics and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey and Hockey Reference
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