Once considered inconceivable, Bo Horvat trade must now be considered to get Canucks back on track
Bo Horvat was the first piece of the puzzle; the first piece of the Canucks now almost ten years old rebuild retool.
Unfortunately for him, Horvat may never reap the benefits of his patience and loyalty (assuming the team ever finds its feet) since the Canucks can’t afford to give him a long-term contract.
It’s not his fault, but rather the way the roster is currently constructed. Horvat is undoubtedly looking for a maximum extension of eight years that will take him to his 35-year season, and with centers valued at a premium, there is no scenario in which he will sign for less than 7 million dollars per year.
Such a deal might be achievable if the team had a better cap sheet, but who the hell are we kidding? It’s the Canucks we’re talking about — the same team that traded for Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s Albatross before locking in another aging player in JT Miller instead of selling high at last year’s trade deadline.
Speaking of which, the OEL and Miller contracts are precisely the reason why the club cannot afford to extend Horvat.
For argument’s sake, let’s say management signs Horvat to an eight-year, $56 million ($7 million AAV) deal. The majority of this deal will be paid after Horvat’s 30th birthday, and alongside OEL and Miller, the Canucks will then have three declining players on their roster that they will pay $7 million or more each until their 35 seasons.
This is not the recipe for success.
In fact, in the last three playoffs, no conference finalist had a roster that included three players who each earned $7 million or more in their 30 or more seasons.
Of course, for an organization that has only made the conference finals three times in history, that’s a high bar to reach. But even looking at last year’s playoff teams, only three clubs paid that much money to a trio of players:
Pittsburgh penguins |
Yevgeny Malkin: $9.5 million |
Sidney Crosby: $8.7 million |
Kris Letang: $7.25 million |
Washington Capitals |
Alex Ovchkin: $9.5 million |
Nicklas Backstrom: $9.2 million |
John Carlson: $8.0 million |
Nashville Predators |
Roman Josi: $9.09 million |
Matt Duchene: $8.0 million |
Ryan Johansen: $8.0 million |
Given that the Penguins and Capitals have great players and all-time cuts to show off, it’s hard to argue against these deals. Nashville is a different case, but even though they’ve been a playoff regular at the very least – something the Canucks can’t boast about.
If Horvat is extended, then it’s likely that this iteration of the Canucks will only be able to ice the best team (over the length of his contract) for the first few years of his contract. But like everything about the Canucks, there are a few small issues that stand in their way.
Firstly, the current squad isn’t even playoff caliber, let alone a contender (duh), and secondly, Elias Pettersson will be in for a huge extension when his bridge contract expires in the summer of 2024.
Simply put, it’s untenable to pay long-term deals to all three Horvat, Miller and OEL. In a perfect world, the team would never have acquired OEL and dealt Miller last season, keeping only Horvat, but the Canucks and the word “perfection” are clearly incompatible.
At this point, Horvat is obviously the odd man out. OEL’s contract would require at least one first-round pick (and likely more) to get around, and as much as fans want to trade Miller, management is highly unlikely to pull the trigger and admit their mistake less than two. months after re-signing it. .
It’s also a dumb idea to deal with Miller when his value is suddenly at rock bottom, and even though everyone has their pitchforks pointed at him, Miller is able to bounce back and prove his $8 million price tag is justifiable. – at least for the first half of his contract.
More importantly, Horvat has by far the highest commercial value of the three. Similar to Miller last year, the Canucks captain could pick up some swag at the trade deadline, and management will make the same mistake they did with Miller if they re-sign him, as it would add another potentially bad contract. to the list instead of cashing in their tokens while its value is still high.
Lost in all the current mess might be the most important point: Horvat might not even be a $7 million player (or more…) at presenteven less when he is in his thirties.
Between 2019 and 2022, Horvat scored 1.57 points per 60 minutes five-for-five, which is just a decent second-line rate and places him 167th out of 222 forwards (25th percentile) who have recorded at least 2000 five against five minutes during this period. wingspan.
Defensively, Horvat could only be described as ‘adequate’ rather than good. During that same span, the Canucks conceded 2.56 of 60 five-for-five goals, placing him 122nd out of the same 222 players (45th percentile). With those underlying numbers below average, the Canucks have unsurprisingly been outscored with Horvat on the ice five-for-five the past three seasons, as he posted an expected 47.22% goal percentage and a real rate of 47.48%.
That said, those stats are heavily influenced by his supporting cast, and playing below average wingers has been a recurring theme in Horvat’s career. Isolating his impact, however, shows a player who is defensively decent at best and usually leads the attack at an above average pace.
The left graph above proves that if Horvat generates a decent amount of attack (xGF/60 and CF/60), he gives up almost as much on his side (xGA/60 and CA/60), regardless of his tough clashes and line mates. To no one’s surprise, the graph on the right shows that much of Horvat’s value comes from his power play prowess, as he’s just an average game driver at even strength.
The following graphics from HockeyViz paint a similar picture, as Horvat’s isolated impact shows a player consistently driving the attack at a positive pace while being somewhat slippery on his side. The red drops on the graph indicate above average shot volume while the blue represents lower volume, and as you can see there is usually a lot of red in front of the opponent’s net and the Canucks goal. .
Interestingly, Horvat’s offensive creation in 2021-22 was below average even though he set a career high in goals. That might be an outlier given his previously stable tally, but it’s also worth noting that Horvat scored seven more goals than expected and recorded a career-high shooting percentage, which is another reason why a long-term extension could age badly.
All things considered, Horvat is much closer to a $6 million player than a $7 million player, and the Canucks can’t afford to have another ineffective contract on the books while their hands are already linked to the Miller and OEL agreements. The smart move would be to trade him when his value is at its highest, and while that would inevitably leave a leadership hole, it’s also fair to wonder whether or not Horvat is the right captain for this team given its current state.
Ultimately, things will only get worse if management doubles down and extends Horvat, and anyone who’s followed this team for even a few seasons should already know that “low bottom” just doesn’t apply to this organization.
If there’s one thing the Canucks seem to be good at these days, it’s hitting new all-time lows.
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