It’s both justified and boring: every time an analyst, a fan or a hockey fan looks at something that has happened in the NHL so far, it comes with the qualifier “c is early”. “It’s a small sample.” “It may not mean anything, but…”
And of course these things can not Means anything. But starting in early November, we suddenly notice that teams that are already out of a playoff berth rarely find their way back. One, two, maybe three teams can start badly and work their way to the playoffs, but a clear separation of the good from the bad teams happened at that point, and so I don’t think that unreasonable to zoom out after each team has played about five games and say ‘Do we have any clues as to where certain teams (or players) are heading this season?’
Because the answer is yes. We have some clues. And some of the first ones that caught my attention are…
Could Connor Bedard go to the Sharks?
Contrary to the beliefs of Sam McKee, the producer of Real Kyper and Bourne, I’m fairly certain that the NHL drafts are not, and never have been, rigged. (I can’t believe the league believed its brightest stars were best located in Pittsburgh and Edmonton over the years). And so I don’t believe it’s predetermined that Connor Bedard will go into the desert and save the Arizona Coyotes, who will undoubtedly end up in a league-wide spot that’s between 30e and 32n/a.
But I’m intrigued by the idea of it ending up somewhere else with a warm climate, in San Jose. The Sharks are 0-5-0 to start the year, and looking at their group of forwards, it’s hard to imagine them suddenly rallying and hitting .500 (which would still miss the playoffs from afar). Their division has suddenly become very good – the Kings were a playoff team, Calgary and Edmonton are Cup contenders, the Knights are off to a strong start – and it just doesn’t look like San Jose’s year. Are they dead last bad? Probably not. But they may be closer than most thought before their season got off to a quiet start in Prague.
If nothing else, the Buffalo Sabers are a handful
They’re only 2-1-0, and they’re on a tough swing on the west coast here where they’ll probably lose a game or two, but they just look like a tough team to play against, which is a huge compliment. They have big bodies – you saw Tage Thompson’s superb goal, and perhaps Ilya Lyubushkin’s last big hit – they have young talent and they work hard. I don’t necessarily see a playoff team in the tough Atlantic, but I do see a future with real opportunity. Shocking as it may sound to say that, they have become really fun to watch.
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Bruce Boudreau the first coach in the hot seat?
Like many people, I love Bruce Boudreau. I think his teams like him too, especially. But the way the Canucks lost early, with blown runs and comments about being ‘mentally weak’ and player-only meetings, and him not having a contract that extends through the season next, and… boy.
The Canucks are pretty good at consistently getting two-goal leads over teams, that’s good. It will probably be a team that finishes somewhere in the range of 10 teams between 15e and 24e league-wide. But if the winning part of the season doesn’t happen soon, Boudreau might miss out on games 15-24 of the Canucks season.
Some teams inspired “oh fuck, this is a really good team” thoughts, and why:
A few of these teams: the Hurricanes, Flames, Rangers and Golden Knights. And what do they have in common? Good defenders.
With just about every team stuck against the salary cap to the point where you have to accept some roster flaws, a number of teams have prioritized keeping good forwards and, in some cases, the goalkeeper. But it’s the teams that have built strong D-bodies that seem to have such an advantage right now, and the groups mentioned here fit that bill. Vegas didn’t retain all of their forwards, but boy, are they still a really good defensive group (and wouldn’t you know, the goalie looks good as a result).
Related: Early concerns for the Leafs, Lightning and Oilers
Each of these teams that slowly came out of the gate came into the year really loving their respective groups, while being slightly concerned about their ability to defend. It’s weird to say about the Lightning, but without Ryan McDonagh and Jan Rutta, you suddenly see a lot of Cal Foote and Haydn Fleury and Philippe Myers. The Leafs have lost Jake Muzzin, lack Timothy Liljegren and are getting questionable performances from the defensemen who are in it. barely started, these teams’ ability to defend is definitely worth watching.
What will Pasta cost the Bruins?
David Pastrnak looks like a salary storm for the Boston Bruins. It has all the elements of a big ticket. He is young, only 26 years old. It’s a pending UFA. He scored 40 in his sleep last year despite missing 10 games, and already has a Rocket Richard Trophy. He was hugely underpaid for years — as was Nathan MacKinnon — earning just $6.6 million over the cap. He’s been suspended like crazy so far and has eight points in four games, rumor has it the cap is skyrocketing, so yeah…he won’t come cheap. Nathan MacKinnon received $12.6 million per year, although Pastrnak did not get this in principle. But you’re crazy if you think he costs less than $10 million per season, and I bet he’s way north of that.
Sneaky Good Player of the Season: Gustav Forsling
Despite only playing three games, Florida’s Forsling is currently one second behind Victor Hedman’s average TOI per game at 25:29, which ranks him sixth in the NHL in that stat. With MacKenzie Weegar gone (and a pretty average D-body in general), Forsling has been elevated to a bigger role and looks like an effective player during these minutes (he’s a superb neutral zone defender). This is from a guy who was a waiver pickup and will only make $2.66 million for this year and next. All I know is that Florida better stay that good: Aaron Ekblad was in the LTIR today, so don’t expect Forsling’s minutes to drop anytime soon.
Why are the Flyers doing this?
Tanking is the worst, and every team should always try to win, period. But the Flyers start 3-0-0, boy, I’m not sure that’s the best thing for their future. But you’re not hiring John Tortorella to take a peaceful trip to the league’s basement, so it’s clear they want to win. Kudos to them for moving things in the right direction.
And finally, speaking of the basement…
Do the Habs have too many good players to finish among the bottom again?
I always expect the Habs to have lottery balls and a shot at Connor Bedard but looking at this team it’s hard to miss that they have a number of guys that can make plays and throw the puck in the net. No, they don’t have a D-body to speak of, but with their group of forwards, it doesn’t feel like watching a team like Arizona or the Sharks or even the aforementioned Flyers. Between Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki, Kirby Dach and Mike Hoffman, Brendan Gallagher, Jonathanb Drouin, Josh Anderson, even Sean Monahan and Evgenii Dadonov, they have guys who can make plays. If they’re not going to be good this year, at least they can be fun to watch.
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